AP FACT CHECK: O’Rourke on climate, Trump on ‘no collusion’


Beto O’Rourke opened his Democratic presidential marketing campaign this past week with a name to action on international warming that misrepresented the science. From Iowa, he claimed scientists are united in believing the planet only has a dozen years to turn the tide on local weather change, which isn’t quite their view.

In Washington, an exasperated federal decide reality-checked the “no collusion mantra” recited by President Donald Trump and his associates as they try to dispel suspicions that folks from his 2016 campaign and Russia worked together to tilt that election. Decide Amy Berman Jackson, while sentencing former marketing campaign chairman Paul Manafort, reminded her courtroom — and not directly the president — that Manafort’s trial was unrelated to questions of collusion with Russia.

“Courtroom is a type of locations the place details nonetheless matter,” Jackson stated. “The ‘no collusion’ mantra is just a non sequitur.”

That did not stop the chorus. “Once more that was proven as we speak, no collusion,” Trump tweeted.

A take a look at a few of the political rhetoric of the past week:

CLIMATE CHANGE

O’ROURKE, on international warming: “That is our remaining probability. The scientists are absolutely unanimous on this. That we’ve got no more than 12 years to take extremely daring action on this disaster.” — remarks in Keokuk, Iowa, on Thursday.

THE FACTS: There isn’t a scientific consensus, much less unanimity, that the planet only has 12 years to fix the problem.

A report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, drawn from the work of lots of of scientists, makes use of 2030 as a outstanding benchmark as a result of signatories to the Paris settlement have pledged emission cuts by then. However it’s not a final probability, exhausting deadline for action, as it has been interpreted in some quarters.

“Glad to clear this up,” James Skea, co-chairman of the report and professor of sustainable power at Imperial School London, informed The Associated Press. The panel “did not say we now have 12 years left to save lots of the world.”

He added: “The warmer it will get, the more severe it will get, but there isn’t a cliff edge.”

“This has been a persistent source of confusion,” agreed Kristie L. Ebi, director of the Middle for Well being and the International Surroundings at the College of Washington in Seattle. “The report never stated we solely have 12 years left.”

The report forecasts that international warming is more likely to improve by zero.5 levels Celsius or 0.9 levels Fahrenheit between 2030 and 2052 “if it continues to increase on the current fee.” The climate has already warmed by 1 degree C or 1.8 levels F because the pre-Industrial Age.

Even holding warming to that degree brings harmful effects to the surroundings, the report stated, however the impression will increase drastically if the increase in the international common temperature approaches 2 degrees C or 3.6 levels F.

“The earth doesn’t attain a cliff at 2030 or 2052,” Ebi informed AP. However “maintain including greenhouse gases to the environment and temperatures will proceed to rise.”

As a lot as local weather scientists see the necessity for broad and fast action to deal with international warming, they don’t agree on an imminent level of no return.

Cornell College climate scientist Natalie M. Mahowald informed the AP that a 12-yr time-frame is a “strong quantity for making an attempt to cut emissions” and to keep the rise in warming underneath present ranges.

However she stated sketching out unduly dire penalties just isn’t “helpful to fixing the problem.”

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RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

TRUMP, on Manafort’s sentencing to a second federal jail term: “I can solely inform you one thing: Again that was proven as we speak, no collusion.” — remarks Wednesday to reporters at the White House.

THE FACTS: There was no such proof in that trial or in Manafort’s different trial. Whether collusion occurred was not a topic of the fees towards Manafort. It is one of many central issues in a separate and persevering with investigation by particular counsel Robert Mueller.

Within the case that produced Manafort’s first jail sentence, he was convicted of tax and financial institution fraud associated to his work advising Ukrainian politicians. Decide T.S. Ellis III neither cleared nor implicated the president, as an alternative emphasizing that Manafort was “not earlier than this courtroom for something having to do with collusion with the Russian government.”

Trump ignored that time afterward, tweeting: “Each the Decide and the lawyer in the Paul Manafort case said loudly and for the world to hear that there was NO COLLUSION with Russia.” Trump misquoted the lawyer in addition to the decide.

On Wednesday, Jackson sentenced Manafort for deceptive the government about his overseas lobbying work and for encouraging witnesses to lie on his behalf. Once more, the case didn’t turn on his management of Trump’s marketing campaign. “The investigation continues to be ongoing,” she famous, scolding Manafort’s legal professionals for mentioning the “no collusion” refrain in the course of the trial.

The two judges sentenced Manafort to 7.5 years altogether.

As with different People who have been close to Trump and have been charged in the Mueller probe, Manafort hasn’t been accused of involvement in Russian election interference. Nor has he been cleared of that suspicion. The identical is true of Trump.

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THE BORDER

TRUMP: “Since 1976, presidents have declared 59 nationwide emergencies. … The one emergency Congress voted to revoke was the one to guard our own country. So, think of that: With all the national emergencies, this was the one they do not need to do. And this is the one, maybe, they need to most do.” — Oval Workplace remarks Friday after vetoing the congressional decision looking for to strike down his declaration of a border emergency.

THE FACTS: His declaration was not the one one designed to protect the country.

President Barack Obama declared an emergency in 2009 to protect the nation from the swine flu, which had killed more than 1,000 individuals and unfold to forty six states earlier than he took that step. The H1N1 flu pressure was linked to more than 274,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths in the U.S. between April 2009 and April 2010.

It enabled the activation of emergency plans, similar to shifting emergency rooms offsite to maintain those infected with the virus away from other emergency room sufferers, and it had Republican help. In contrast to Trump’s order, it was not designed to release cash that Congress had already refused to spend.

Most nationwide emergencies declared by presidents have been narrowly drawn, designed to guard U.S. interests in overseas nations, typically in response to crises breaking abroad.

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TRUMP on border security: “We’re apprehending report numbers of individuals.” — drug-trafficking assembly Wednesday.

THE FACTS: One main report has been broken — the variety of migrant households arrested for crossing into the U.S. illegally. Other data haven’t.

More than seventy six,000 migrants crossed the U.S.-Mexico border final month, more than double the number from the same period final yr. Most have been households coming in increasingly giant groups.

General numbers of Border Patrol arrests have been the very best in 12 years, however not the very best ever.

The annual numbers are far from a report. About four hundred,000 individuals have been arrested for crossing the border illegally in the last finances yr, only one-quarter of the 1.6 million in 2000. That’s the document.

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MELANIA TRUMP

TRUMP: “The Pretend Information photoshopped footage of Melania, then propelled conspiracy theories that it is truly not her by my aspect in Alabama and other locations. They’re only getting more deranged with time!” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: No, there isn’t any proof that the information organizations Trump likes to call the “Pretend Information” doctored footage of Melania Trump to hawk the falsehood that a stand-in took the first woman’s place in Alabama last week or different places at different occasions. Some wrote concerning the fakery, unfold by a mixture of satirical, gullible and anti-Trump individuals online, and Trump’s tweet provides them extra visibility than they might have had otherwise.

Among them, The Guardian columnist Marina Hyde tweeted in October 2017 that she was “absolutely satisfied Melania is being performed by a Melania impersonator lately.” She followed up with an admission that she had indulged in a “parallel pretend universe” through which she fantasized that the first woman had escaped to small-city Missouri and was volunteering at a shelter for refugees.

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RAIL SAFETY

TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY ELAINE CHAO, on constructive practice control: “Nothing happened on this until we got here into workplace. And I would really like some credit for that.” — remarks Monday to reporters.

THE FACTS: Her remark that nothing was achieved on constructive practice management before she took control of the Transportation Division isn’t true.

The Federal Railroad Administration took an aggressive posture on the braking know-how underneath the Obama administration. After an Amtrak practice derailed in Philadelphia in 2015, the agency’s administrator, Sarah Feinberg, pushed railroads to maneuver quicker on installing constructive practice control, which has been out there for years. The GPS-based mostly know-how is designed to routinely sluggish or cease trains which might be going too quick and may take over control of a practice when an engineer is distracted or incapacitated.

Congress had mandated that railroad corporations install the braking know-how by 2015, after a 2008 Metrolink crash in California killed 25 individuals. However the rail business persuaded Congress to push back the installation deadline to 2018, while allowing railroads to apply for an extension until 2020 in some circumstances.

Feinberg stated she wouldn’t accept additional delays and had her company publish quarterly updates about each railroad’s progress on her agency’s website.

She warned railroads that any extensions beyond the 2018 deadline would only be thought-about if the railroads might show they made a great-religion effort to satisfy the mandate. She additionally advised railroads to submit plans that spelled out their detailed schedules for the braking techniques and warned that the agency might nice them up to $5,000 per day in the event that they did not file the required plans.

In distinction, Chao was noncommittal on the deadline at her affirmation hearing, saying she needed to be briefed on the know-how.

Knowledge offered by the FRA exhibits that by the top of 2016, constructive practice control was in operation for 16 % of freight railroads’ required route miles and 24 % of passenger railroads’ required route miles. As of December 2018, it was operating for 83 % of route miles for freight railroads and 30 % of passenger railroads’ required route miles.

The miles completed beneath the Trump administration constructed on the inspiration that had been set out beneath Obama.

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CLINTON EMAILS

TRUMP, on former FBI lawyer Lisa Web page: “Comey testified (beneath oath) that it was a ‘unanimous’ choice on Crooked Hillary. Lisa Web page transcripts show he LIED.” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Nothing in Page’s testimony to the Home Judiciary Committee final yr indicates that former FBI Director James Comey lied about his investigative group’s determination not to advocate fees towards 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Clinton in her dealing with of an e mail server while secretary of state. A transcript of Web page’s testimony was released by the panel’s prime Republican this previous week.

Trump is right that Comey did testify to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in July 2016 that the decision on no fees was unanimous amongst his investigative group.

Within the newly released transcript, Web page stated the investigative group determined it didn’t have “enough proof” towards Clinton to deliver a cost of “gross negligence” in her handling of emails.

Web page did word there was some “smack speak” by greater-degree FBI officers expressing a want to “get” Clinton. “So I am aware of senior FBI officials speaking to subordinate FBI officials on the Hillary Clinton investigative workforce who unquestionably had anti-Hillary sentiment, however who also stated: You need to get her or — once more, I haven’t got a precise quote — however like we’re relying on you, you realize,” Web page stated.

But Web page additionally noted that none of those officials was able of authority over the investigation any longer.

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BREXIT

TRUMP, on how he stood at his Scottish golf resort, Turnberry, on the eve of the Brexit referendum and predicted that the British would vote to go away the European Union: “I predicted it was going to happen and I used to be proper and other people laughed once I predicted it they usually gained by about two factors. And I used to be standing out on Turnberry and we had a press convention and other people have been screaming. That was the day before, when you keep in mind. I feel you have been there. And other people have been screaming and I stated, ‘No, I feel it should happen.’ And other people have been stunned I made the prediction …because President Obama made the other prediction. And I was right.” — remarks Thursday at White Home.

THE FACTS: As when he has informed this story earlier than, Trump is mixing up his predictions and his days. A month before the vote, he did predict precisely that Britain would vote to go away the EU. The day after the 2016 vote — not the day earlier than — he predicted from his Scottish resort that the EU would collapse because of Britain’s withdrawal. That is still to be seen.

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Associated Press writers Colleen Lengthy, Eric Tucker, Michael Balsamo, Chad Day, Mary Clare Jalonick and Jill Colvin in Washington and Elliot Spagat in San Diego contributed to this report.

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EDITOR’S NOTE _ A take a look at the veracity of claims by political figures





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